I recently had a client tell me that they never book their cruise in advance, since there are always last-minute cruise deals out there as cruise lines try to fill their unbooked cabins.  We have all seen the ads touting big savings at the last minute, and some travel advisors specialize in this part of the cruise sale market.  I was skeptical.  What I know about most cruise lines is that they are very good at filling their ships and maximizing revenue – yes cruise lines make money while still adding value to most travelers’ vacation budgets.  So, I decided to look into last minute fares.

It is February 1^st and I am looking at cruises that sail in the month of February.  The first thing I am struck by is the lack of available cabins.  Most ships are sold out.  We have a strong cruise market right now, and for ship after ship I see no cabins available.  However I do find a cruise that sails on February 3^rd that shows available cabins.  I think that qualifies as last minute.  I check the rates.  An Inside Cabin is $725.50 per person, double occupancy.  An Oceanview Cabin is $787.50 per person, double occupancy.  There are no Ocean Balcony Cabins or suites remaining. 

So I start to analyze the prices.  Yes, the Inside Cabin at $725.50 is a 12% savings over the $824.50 price the cabin sold for on January 11^th.  The Oceanview Cabin at $787.50 is a 37% savings over the $1,078.50 price the cabin sold for on January 15^th.  There is only one Inside Cabin left to book, and only one Oceanview Cabin left to book on this sailing.  So indeed, there are last minute deals on cruise fares.

Not so fast!  Let’s look a little deeper.  First you will note that the high point in the cabin price for the Interior Cabin was on January 11^th and the high point in the cabin price for the Oceanview Cabin was on January 15^th.  Why is it that the high price point isn’t on the same day for both cabins?  Do you remember that I said that cruise lines know how to maximize profits?  They look at the inventory they have, and the demand for that inventory constantly.  If they see that there is more demand for one cabin class over another, they adjust their pricing accordingly.  If they see that the supply of a particular cabin class on a particular sailing is selling out and there is still demand, they adjust their price accordingly.  The supply and demand for each class of cabin can change daily, or even hourly.  So, rates change.  On top of that, in addition to booking actual cabins, cruise lines sell “Guaranteed” classes of cabins.  This means that a cabin isn’t assigned to a passenger until the last minute.  If you are buying a Guaranteed Cabin in a certain category, it means that you will be assigned a cabin in that category or a higher category.  You will typically receive your cabin assignment when you are boarding.  This means that if a cruise line sees that their Oceanview Cabins aren’t selling as well as their Interior Cabins, they can move Interior Guarantee passengers to Oceanview Cabins, and book the better selling Interior Cabins.  They can bump passengers up to a better grade of cabin, but not down.   This gives the cruise line more flexibility in filling the ship.  Incidentally, a Guaranteed Cabin in a class typically has the best fare to encourage passengers to select this option. 

If supply and demand affects the price of a cruise cabin, prices should be higher as more cabins are booked on a popular cruise.  In today’s cruise market, if a cruise isn’t filling up, we have to ask what’s wrong with the cruise.  Quite frankly, this simply doesn’t happen.   Cruise lines are also very good at knowing their customers, and knowing what they want in a vacation.  So overall, demand is fairly constant.  This would make one think that the earlier you book, the better the fare would be.  Let’s look at that theory.

On this very same cruise, although the last minute Inside Cabin rate of $725.50 is a 12% savings over the high point, it is nearly 258% higher than the lowest rate of $281.50 for which this cabin once sold.  The Oceanview Cabin at $787.50, a 37% savings over the high price is at least 174% higher than the lowest rate of $451.50 for which this cabin once sold.  So by this, booking earlier looks better.   This ultimately brings us to the question.  When is the best time to book your cruise?  Ultimately, if you have found the cruise of your dreams, or at least the cruise you want to take, the answer is “today”.  Book it today.  This may sound cliché for a Travel Advisor to say.  But if you look at it realistically, it makes sense.   If you wait, the price is more likely to go up, rather than down.  There may be flash sales, but they are hard to predict, and may never happen.  If you are relying on grabbing a last minute deal, the sailing is likely to be sold out. At the last minute, cruise lines assign cabins to those passengers in the “Guaranteed” category, making available cabins in the category with the most demand.  Remember, cruise lines don’t raise the fare for a cabin class unless they are reasonably sure they can still sell the cabin.

In the time period it took to write the above article, I ran the search for this cruise again.  Now there are two Inside Cabins available at $725.50 per person, double occupancy.  There are two Oceanview Cabins available at an all-time high of $1,248.50 per person, double occupancy.   And there is one Ocean Balcony Cabin available at what seems like a bargain, compared to the Oceanview Cabins, at $1,236.50 per person double occupancy. This new availability of inventory is possibly due to a last minute cancellation.  But more than likely it is due to the cruise line assigning the Guaranteed Cabins as needed.  Running the search one more time after writing this paragraph and the Ocean Balcony Cabin is now gone, as well as one of the Inside Cabins.  Just that fast. . .